Peter Kellner: The Wages of Spin

“Things can only get better”, sang enthusiastic Labour activists on the night of the party’s landslide victory back in 1997.

According to ministers and, indeed, official statistics, things mostly have got better. But that’s not the verdict of the jury that counts: the voters. They have become so fed up with Labour’s spin machine that they disbelieve virtually everything the Government says – even when it’s true.

YouGov’s large-scale poll for the Sun makes this devastatingly clear. Even after last year’s recession, average living standards are one-fifth higher than when Labour came to power – but far more people say they are worse off (44 per cent) than better off (28 per cent) than they were in 1997.

Despite smaller class sizes, better exam results and thousands of new school buildings, more people think state schools are now worse (34 per cent) rather than better (26 per cent).

Crime rates have fallen steadily over the past 12 years, yet three times as many voters think crime has gone up (49 per cent) than down (15 per cent).

In just one area does Labour win more bouquets than brickbats. Thirty-four per cent think the NHS has improved, while 31 per cent think it has got worse.  But, given the vast amounts of money spent on health, and the virtual end of long waiting lists, ministers must have hoped for far more gratitude from the electorate.

Given these figures, ministers  might be shocked, but should not be surprised, to learn that a mere 17 per cent of the electorate think Labour’s rule overall has been “good” or “excellent”, while 44 per cent say it has been “poor” or “terrible”. (Thirty-five per cent strike a middle course, saying “fair”, with Labour having done a mixture of good and bad things.)

In fact, the only real surprise is why the Tories are not heading for a landslide victory. This is because millions of swing voters have yet to decide where to place their affections. They have fallen out of love with Labour in a big way – but most have not yet fallen in love with the Conservatives.

Peter Kellner: Climate Change a Low Priority for Most Britains

This post first appeared on my colleague Peter Kellner’s YouGov blog.

YouGov has conducted a detailed survey, for the Left Foot Forward website, on British attitudes to climate change, as world leaders prepared to go to Copenhagen for the final, crucial days of the climate change summit. Our results suggest a mounting reluctance for Britain to take tough, immediate action to help avert global warming – a trend can be reversed in the near future only if a binding agreement is reached at Copenhagen; and even then, the public will need to be persuaded that other countries will deliver on their side of the bargain.

These are the key findings:

• Climate change remains a low priority – and has not climbed the league table despite the wide media coverage of the issue in the past few weeks. Even among the 24% who say it’s a “big and urgent issue: radical steps need to be taken”, only 45% say is among the top issues facing the country, and 36% say is among the top issues facing them personally.
• The number thinking it’s a big issue needing radical measures has fallen in the past four years from 38% to 24%.
• Scepticism about the willingness of Russia, China and India to implement any deal, already high four years ago, is even higher now: only 17% think they would implement any agreed measures.
• In contrast, faith in the US is up, though still not high: four years ago (i.e. during the Bush presidency) 24% thought they would implement agreed measures. Now, in the Obama era, the figure is up, but only to 34%.
• There has been a sharp drop in the number thinking Britain should take a lead in fighting global warming, from 49 to 36%. The numbers thinking that there is no point in the UK taking radical action until other countries also agree to take tough measures, is up from 45 to 56%.
• However, if there is a deal at Copenhagen, the willingness of people to accept higher motoring and flying costs goes up, from 26% (when the same qn is asked with no reference to Copenhagen) to 39%, while the  number opposed to higher costs falls from 64% to 46%. Note that Tory voters are far less willing than Lab or LD voters to paty more.
• But there IS majority support for the government to spend more on renewable energy.

In short, the public have not been sold on tough action; a deal at Copenhagen is a necessary condition for winning over the public – but a far from sufficient condition.

Support Slumps for Britain’s Role in Afghanistan

This post is copied my Peter Kellner’s blog. Peter is a colleague of mine at YouGov.

Two YouGov polls show that public support for Britain’s involvement in the war in Afghanistan has declined sharply. For Sky News we repeated two questions asked in August, while for Channel 4 News we repeated two questions first asked a fortnight earlier. Both show the same trends.

On October 22/23, 42% of the British public thought the Taliban could be defeated, while 48% thought they could not. By November 4/5, following the deaths of five British soldiers and Hamid Karzi’s controversial re-election as president, amid widespread accusations of corruption, just 33% think the war can be won, while a clear majority, 57% think victory is no longer possible.

As a result, our Sky News poll, conducted on November 5/6, finds that support for Britain’s involvement in the war in Afghanistan has fallen to just 21%. Three times as many people – 63% – think British troops should not be fighting there. Opposition to the war has grown significantly since YouGov last asked this question for Sky News in August, when 28% backed the war and 57% opposed it.

Women oppose the war by more than six-to-one, with 70% saying British troops should not be in Afghanistan, and only 11% now approving the decision to send them. Among men the margin is less than two-to-one, with 32% saying the troops are right to be there and 56% opposing the war.

Recent events have done nothing to clarify the purpose of the war to the British public. Just 40% now say it is very or fairly clear why British troops are in Afghanistan – down from the 44% we recorded in August. the proportion saying it is not very clear, or not at all clear, why they are there is up from 55 to 57%.

What, then, does the public think should happen now? Our Channel 4 poll finds that, 35% now think all British troops should be withdrawn immediately – compared with 25% in late October. Only 20% think they should remain in the country “as long as Afghanistan’s government wants them there” – down from 29% two weeks ago. Once again there is a clear gender gap. Women are especially keen to see British troops come home: 40% think they should be withdrawn immediately, while just 13% think they should stay as long as they are needed. Men divide more evenly: 31% want them home immediately; while 28% think they should stay as long as they are needed.

Gordon Brown and other ministers plainly have a major challenge now to explain and justify the war, if public disenchantment is not to reach a point where it becomes politically difficult for the Government to keep British troops in Afghanistan – just as America’s war in Vietnam became hard to sustain after the American public turned against the war forty years ago.

Ministers have one other challenge: to persuade the public that they are doing all they can to support British troops while they are in Afghanistan. 81% still think the Government needs to do more – virtually the same as the 82% recorded in August. At the moment, the prevailing public mood in Britain is that our troops have been sent to fight an unwinnable war with inadequate resources, and therefore should not be there. Unless those perceptions change sharply, and soon, the Afghan war could prove as damaging to Gordon Brown’s premiership as the Iraq war eventually turned out to be for Tony Blair’s